I've spent a decent amount of money on this game. I've always bought Apex packs so one day I could get a heirloom, but that day still hasn't came yet. I've bought around 200-250 packs and still nothing. Is it ever guaranteed after so many packs? Or, do you just have to be lucky? Olansi China
It is guarunteed after 500 packs. But luck plays a big part. My friend bought the first battle pass and has never spent another pound. He just buys the next one with the coins form the previous pass. He got his heirloom within weeks of the blood hound one coming out. Really lucky as blood hound is his main. I finally got heirloom shards myself last month. I don’t buy packs but I do buy the battle pass each time to support the game. I play a lot and really enjoy it. I don’t know how many packs I have opened as they were all free from levelling up or battlepass.
@DarthValtrex .5% and 1%?
I would say the odds are far lower than that.
If they were .5% per pack, after 250 packs you would have a better than 71% of having hit an heirloom. Clearly, that's not right. That's the math.
One of the biggest problem with loot box mechanics is people who are putting money into them really don't understand the mathematics and how these things are designed to work. To get what you really want (most people is heirlooms) is pretty much zero.
I did a long post on the FIFA forms a few years ago during TOTY and how "sTrEaMeRs" and "CoNtEnT cReAtOrS" and "PrOs" did pack openings and got nothing after spending 10K+ in FIFA points. That's how it's supposed to work. That's the math. Sadly, the usual conspiracy theorists came out. You can always tell who paid attention in science/math class and who was eating the glue :-P
- DR
@RockDokRockwhat math is that?
If your math was applied to a coinflip, than getting heads 4 times means you have 200% chance for tails?
I never knew % chances were stacking each unsuccesful roll.
@damsonwhufndthis Basic high school probability.
Taking the claim at face value. Each pack has an independent probability of 0.5% or 0.005 of having an heirloom (worst case in the claim of 0.5% to 1%.
The chance of *NOT* getting an heirloom in an individual pack therefore must be 99.5% (.995).
If I have 250 apex packs the probability of not getting an heirloom in any of them is .995^{250}. This is approx 28.5%
Therefore you have a probability of 71.5% of getting at least 1 heriloom in 250 packs if the individual probability weights for an heirloom (per pack) are 0.5%.
In practice these weights may vary, I get that, but for the sake of example the values suggested clearly aren't right. They will be *far far* lower.
Yes?
% chances don't "stack". I have no idea what you are on about.
- DR
@Cheese9Man Exactly. One day.... I'm pretty much a day 1 player with level 700+ and nothing yet... :-P
- DR
@DarthValtrex Yes, i know that. The math takes that into account.
To show you take coin flipping. 50/50 heads or tails.
Heads, you get an heirloom. Tails you don't.
One flip is 50/50. 2 outcomes
H or T
Two flips 4 possible outcomes (in this case all equally likely, so 25% chance of each)
H/H
H/T
T/H
T/T
Chance of not getting an heirloom is .5 * .5 (both flips are Tails). Which is 0.25. Therefore chance of getting the Heads over two flips is 75% (which you can see above, each of the 4 events is 25% chance, 3 of the 4 events would give you an heirloom ergo 75% chance).
Which one do you have a better chance at getting the heirloom? One flip or two?
Exactly the same logic used in my argument before. That's how probability works.
That's how probability works over multiple independent events. This is basic stuff guys. I am surprised I am having to "show my work".
- DR
I can confirm @DarthValtrex explanation, the RNG % is per pack with no accumulation.
The only thing that has a drop% increase with each pack opened is crafting metals, as they replace what would be a duplicate item.
Or legendary items If you count the 30 pack threshold I guess.
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